Getting Incentives Right: do we need ex post CBA?

This paper, presented at the Sixth European Conference on Evaluation of Cohesion Policy (Warsaw, 30 November-1 December 2009), discusses why there is a strong need of ex-post Cost-Benefit analysis and which conditions should be met for a proper ex-post exercise to be carried out in the framework of Cohesion Policy major projects. After an introduction about the objectives and instruments of the 2007-2013 EU Cohesion Policy, and in particular the legal framework for co-financing environmental and transport projects, the paper illustrates and discusses some methodological choices which have been made by the authors of the EC CBA Guide. It is showed that, without an ex-post Cost-Benefit analysis, the ex-ante exercise is also weakened as a decision making tool. In particular, in the light of evidence from literature about the most common mistakes and pitfalls in ex-ante project appraisal, it is explained how systematic ex-post evaluation is important in particular linked to ex-ante incentives to reveal true information about the projects characteristics (especially on investment costs and demand forecast which are often respectively under and overestimated due to an optimism bias) and ex-post performance assessment. The EC has a unique role to play in this context, and recommendations are given about how to improve the use of CBA for investment decisions and how to contract co-funding of major projects in the framework of incentive theory.CBA, Cohesion Policy, Incentives

Cost-benefit analysis of Infrastructure Projects in an Enlarged European Union: an Incentive-Oriented Approach

The purpose of the paper is to analyse some results of cost-benefit analysis in a sample of ISPA (Structural Instrument for pre-accession countries) projects. The focus is particularly on the variability of financial and economic rates of return and how to integrate this information in the EU co- financing mechanism. We investigate, through the analysis of variance of co-financing rate, to which extent variability of rates is due to structural characteristics (sectors, countries) or to the existence of a residual variance due both to specificity of the project and discretional element of the appraisal method, which may constitute an information noise. We find that the variance of co-financing rate across countries is poorly explained by different composition of sectors of investment. This suggests the need to reinforce a more consistent approach to evaluation and co-financing. We suggest some possible solutions.Cost-benefit analysis, Project Evaluation, Structural Funds, European Regional Policy

Utilities deprivation dynamics and energy sector reforms in Europe

In the late 1990s many European countries started comprehensive restructuring of their energy industries, the typical ingredients of the reforms are full or partial privatization, vertical disintegration, liberalization. In this paper we focus on the way in which energy sector reforms affect social affordability. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of energy reforms on the household probability of experiencing utilities deprivation (that is, to be unable to pay scheduled utility bills) in seven European Countries: Denmark, Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands and Spain. The period of analysis is 1994-2001. We also explore the dynamics of utilities deprivations focusing on the causes behind deprivation persistence. We differentiate between household heterogeneity and true state dependence. Then, controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity, we use the magnitude of average partial effects to investigate the relevance of any state dependence and the impact of energy sector reforms on the probability of experiencing utilities deprivations and on state dependence. We find evidence that vertical disintegration in the energy sector and privatization increase the household probability of experiencing utilities deprivation. Moreover, vertical disintegration also increases the household persistence in the status of deprivation.deprivation, utilities, privatization, liberalization, vertical disintegration, true state persistence.

Hierarchical contracting in grant decisions: ex-ante and ex-post evaluation in the context of the EURegional Policy

This paper applies incentive theory to the context of the European Union (EU) Regional Policy. The core instruments of the policy are the Structural Funds, capital grants that ?ow from the European Commission (EC) to Mem- ber States and regional authorities to promote investment and growth at local level. The EU grants need a co-payment by the regional government and do not cover in full the investment cost. We model this situation, similar to several other supra- national or federal contexts, as a simple principal-supervisor-agent model of the investment game between a supranational player (the principal), such as the EC, a non (fully) benevolent regional government (the supervisor), and a private ?rm (the executing agency). We show how the role of providers of additional information, the region (ex-ante) and an evaluator (ex-post) is crucial to reducing the optimal value of the grant and to improving the inef- ?ciencies caused by asymmetric information at the grant decision stage in a federal hierarchyHierarchical contracting, project evaluation, EU Regional Policy

The Missing Shock: The Macroeconomic Impact of British Privatisation

The privatisation policy pursued in the UK by Mrs Thatcher's government (1979-1990) and subsequently by Mr Major's government (1990-1997) was the largest experiment in public divestitures among capitalist economies. It had a deep impact on economic policy-making world wide, and was vastly imitated, in Western Europe, in the former planned economies, in a number of less developed countries. In this paper we test the impact of privatisation on macroeconomic performance in the United Kingdom using quarterly data from 1979 to 1999. In the econometric model, we use privatisation proceeds as an explanatory variable and we control for several other variables. Testing for cointegration the results show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between GDP growth and the variables used in the model. However, in our empirical analysis we find a weak evidence that privatisation generated an aggregate shock on output in the UK. This result is consistent with empirical literature on microeconomic evidence that shows that in the UK ownership change per se had little impact on long term productivity trends.Corporate governance, Privatization, Transition, Ownership structure

Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Large Hadron Collider to 2025 and beyond

Social cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of projects has been successfully applied in different fields such as transport, energy, health, education, and environment, including climate change. It is often argued that it is impossible to extend the CBA approach to the evaluation of the social impact of research infrastructures, because the final benefit to society of scientific discovery is generally unpredictable. Here, we propose a quantitative approach to this problem, we use it to design an empirically testable CBA model, and we apply it to the the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the highest-energy accelerator in the world, currently operating at CERN. We show that the evaluation of benefits can be made quantitative by determining their value to users (scientists, early-stage researchers, firms, visitors) and non-users (the general public). Four classes of contributions to users are identified: knowledge output, human capital development, technological spillovers, and cultural effects. Benefits for non-users can be estimated, in analogy to public goods with no practical use (such as environment preservation), using willingness to pay. We determine the probability distribution of cost and benefits for the LHC since 1993 until planned decommissioning in 2025, and we find there is a 92% probability that benefits exceed its costs, with an expected net present value of about 3 billion euro, not including the unpredictable economic value of discovery of any new physics. We argue that the evaluation approach proposed here can be replicated for any large-scale research infrastructure, thus helping the decision-making on competing projects, with a socio-economic appraisal complementary to other evaluation criteria.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure

A Fair Price for Energy? Ownership versus Market Opening in the EU15

In the past two decades privatisation and liberalisation of network industries providing services of general economic interest (SGEI), have been particularly significant in the European Union. Wide variations around a common policy trend can, however, be observed across countries and sectors. We focus on electricity and gas sectors because energy sectors have usually been profit makers, not affected by direct government transfers, in contrast to other SGEI. We study the effects of privatisation and other reforms on consumer prices using both subjective data on consumers’ perception of utility prices and data on average prices paid.privatisation, electricity, gas, reforms

Knowledge creation: new frontiers for public investment

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Internationalisation modes and determinants. The case of Italian automotive firms

The aim of this paper is to study the characteristics of the internationalisation process and to identify its determinants in a representative sample of firms in the Italian automotive chain. The main findings of an econometric analysis based on micro-evidence are that: a) the firms engage in complex modes of internationalisation; b) the individual firm's characteristics play a significant role; c) the firms located in the province of Turin have a clear localisation advantage, a sort of an 'industrial district' effect.Internationalisation, Firm Behaviour, Automotive Industry, Qualitative Choice Models

The competitive repositioning of automotive firms in Turin: innovation, internationalisation and the role of ICT

Following the increasing competitive pressure and the emergence of new industrial poles within the auto industry, Italian firms have been the protagonists of an intense reorganisation, which is still ongoing. This case-study involves 13 supplier firms, operating in the automotive industry, localised in Turin, that have adopted a series of strategies aimed at improving their international competitiveness. The empirical findings show that there is a particularly strong innovative drive for the interviewed firms to position themselves in activities with greater added value and to undertake internationalisation strategies, from the 'lighter' to the more 'complex' forms, coupled with a use of information and communication technologies epresents a case of excellence.Innovation, Internationalisation, ICT, Automotive Industry